Riding profile
Kitchener Centre
The question
Kitchener Centre: a safe seat for the Green Party?
Editorial read
Kitchener Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 23% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Aislinn Clancy
Sits with GP
Current forecast
GP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| GP | PC | OLP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKitchener Centre | 51.0% | 22.8% | 16.0% | 8.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 3.9% +47.1 | 40.2% −17.5 | 33.4% −17.3 | 20.3% −11.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AISLINN CLANCY Elected | GP | 21,200 | 51.4 | — |
| ROB ELLIOTT | PC | 9,991 | 24.2 | — |
| COLLEEN JAMES | OLP | 5,892 | 14.3 | — |
| BROOKLIN WALLIS | NDP | 2,821 | 6.8 | — |
| PAUL SIMOES | OTH | 804 | 1.9 | — |
| SEBASTIAN BUTNAR-STOICA | OTH | 398 | 1.0 | — |
| CHRISTOPHER NUHN | IND | 144 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029