Riding profile

Kitchener Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Kitchener Centre: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Current forecast

GP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • GP 49.4%
  • PC 24.0%
  • OLP 15.2%
  • NDP 7.7%
  • OTH 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

GP PC OLP NDP
HereKitchener Centre 49.4%24.0%15.2%7.7%
Provincial averageOntario 2.8% +46.6 41.4% −17.4 32.3% −17.1 19.5% −11.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kitchener Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 24% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aislinn Clancy

Sits with GP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
GP
Margin
27.2 pts
Turnout
47.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
AISLINN CLANCY Elected GP 21,200 51.4 —
ROB ELLIOTT PC 9,991 24.2 —
COLLEEN JAMES OLP 5,892 14.3 —
BROOKLIN WALLIS NDP 2,821 6.8 —
PAUL SIMOES OTH 804 1.9 —
SEBASTIAN BUTNAR-STOICA OTH 398 1.0 —
CHRISTOPHER NUHN IND 144 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029