Riding profile

Kitchener Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Kitchener Centre: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Editorial read

Kitchener Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 23% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aislinn Clancy

Sits with GP

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

GP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • GP 51.0%
  • PC 22.8%
  • OLP 16.0%
  • NDP 8.4%
  • OTH 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

GP PC OLP NDP
HereKitchener Centre 51.0%22.8%16.0%8.4%
Provincial averageOntario 3.9% +47.1 40.2% −17.5 33.4% −17.3 20.3% −11.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
GP
Margin
27.2 pts
Turnout
47.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
AISLINN CLANCY Elected GP 21,200 51.4
ROB ELLIOTT PC 9,991 24.2
COLLEEN JAMES OLP 5,892 14.3
BROOKLIN WALLIS NDP 2,821 6.8
PAUL SIMOES OTH 804 1.9
SEBASTIAN BUTNAR-STOICA OTH 398 1.0
CHRISTOPHER NUHN IND 144 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029