Riding profile
Wellington—Halton Hills
The question
Wellington—Halton Hills: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Wellington—Halton Hills, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 32% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Joseph Racinsky
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWellington—Halton Hills | 42.7% | 31.9% | 15.1% | 8.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +2.4 | 33.4% −1.5 | 3.9% +11.2 | 20.3% −12.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOSEPH RACINSKY Elected | PC | 24,637 | 45.6 | — |
| ALEX HILSON | OLP | 14,874 | 27.6 | — |
| BRONWYNNE WILTON | GP | 8,464 | 15.7 | — |
| SIMONE KENT | NDP | 3,980 | 7.4 | — |
| STEPHEN KITRAS | OTH | 1,417 | 2.6 | — |
| JASON MEDLAND | OTH | 398 | 0.7 | — |
| RON PATAVA | IND | 199 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029