Wellington—Halton Hills
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington—Halton Hills | 42.8% | 29.3% | 14.6% | 8.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.6%+2.3 | 30.7%−1.4 | 3.6%+11.0 | 20.8%−12.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Joseph Racinsky · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 18.1 points, with 50.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 13.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Racinsky Elected | PC | 24,637 | 45.7 |
| Alex Hilson | OLP | 14,874 | 27.6 |
| Bronwynne Wilton | GP | 8,464 | 15.7 |
| Simone Kent | NDP | 3,980 | 7.4 |
| Stephen Kitras | OTH | 1,417 | 2.6 |
| Jason Medland | OTH | 398 | 0.7 |
| Ron Patava | IND | 199 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Guelph GP, safe seat
- Milton PC, toss-up
- Kitchener South—Hespeler PC, safe seat
- Dufferin—Caledon PC, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Brampton West PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated