Riding profile

Dufferin—Caledon

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on provincewide

The question

Dufferin—Caledon: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 50.3%
  • OLP 28.3%
  • GP 10.6%
  • NDP 7.1%
  • OTH 3.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP GP NDP
HereDufferin—Caledon 50.3%28.3%10.6%7.1%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +8.8 32.3% −4.0 2.8% +7.7 19.5% −12.5

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Dufferin—Caledon, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 28% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Sylvia Jones

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
27.1 pts
Turnout
42.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
SYLVIA JONES Elected PC 26,072 52.5 —
MICHAEL DEHN OLP 12,606 25.4 —
SANDY BROWN GP 6,157 12.4 —
GEORGE NAKITSAS NDP 3,184 6.4 —
KRIS EGGLETON OTH 1,074 2.2 —
JEFFREY HALSALL IND 384 0.8 —
ALEXEY CHERKASHOV OTH 197 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029