Riding profile
Dufferin—Caledon
The question
Dufferin—Caledon: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Dufferin—Caledon, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 30% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Sylvia Jones
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDufferin—Caledon | 47.9% | 29.6% | 12.4% | 8.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +7.7 | 33.4% −3.7 | 3.9% +8.5 | 20.3% −12.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYLVIA JONES Elected | PC | 26,072 | 52.5 | — |
| MICHAEL DEHN | OLP | 12,606 | 25.4 | — |
| SANDY BROWN | GP | 6,157 | 12.4 | — |
| GEORGE NAKITSAS | NDP | 3,184 | 6.4 | — |
| KRIS EGGLETON | OTH | 1,074 | 2.2 | — |
| JEFFREY HALSALL | IND | 384 | 0.8 | — |
| ALEXEY CHERKASHOV | OTH | 197 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029