Riding profile
Simcoe—Grey
The question
Simcoe—Grey: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSimcoe—Grey | 53.1% | 33.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +11.6 | 32.3% +0.9 | 19.5% −12.9 | 2.8% +1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Simcoe—Grey, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 33% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Brian Saunderson
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRIAN SAUNDERSON Elected | PC | 30,572 | 53.6 | — |
| TED CRYSLER | OLP | 18,507 | 32.4 | — |
| BENTEN TINKLER | NDP | 3,264 | 5.7 | — |
| ALLAN KUHN | GP | 3,154 | 5.5 | — |
| DAVID GHOBRIAL | OTH | 1,554 | 2.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029