Riding profile
Simcoe—Grey
The question
Simcoe—Grey: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Simcoe—Grey, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 34% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Brian Saunderson
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSimcoe—Grey | 52.2% | 34.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +12.0 | 33.4% +0.9 | 20.3% −13.0 | 3.9% +1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRIAN SAUNDERSON Elected | PC | 30,572 | 53.6 | — |
| TED CRYSLER | OLP | 18,507 | 32.4 | — |
| BENTEN TINKLER | NDP | 3,264 | 5.7 | — |
| ALLAN KUHN | GP | 3,154 | 5.5 | — |
| DAVID GHOBRIAL | OTH | 1,554 | 2.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029