Riding profile
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
The question
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | 49.2% | 37.4% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +7.8 | 32.3% +5.1 | 19.5% −12.7 | 4.0% +0.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 37% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Doug Downey
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOUG DOWNEY Elected | PC | 20,073 | 49.9 | — |
| ROSE ZACHARIAS | OLP | 14,332 | 35.6 | — |
| TRACEY LAPHAM | NDP | 2,710 | 6.7 | — |
| TIM GRANT | GP | 1,637 | 4.1 | — |
| ALEX DELLA VENTURA | OTH | 856 | 2.1 | — |
| ERIN PATTERSON | OTH | 637 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029