Riding profile
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
The question
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 39% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Doug Downey
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | 48.1% | 38.6% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +7.9 | 33.4% +5.3 | 20.3% −12.8 | 3.9% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOUG DOWNEY Elected | PC | 20,073 | 49.9 | — |
| ROSE ZACHARIAS | OLP | 14,332 | 35.6 | — |
| TRACEY LAPHAM | NDP | 2,710 | 6.7 | — |
| TIM GRANT | GP | 1,637 | 4.1 | — |
| ALEX DELLA VENTURA | OTH | 856 | 2.1 | — |
| ERIN PATTERSON | OTH | 637 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029