Riding profile
York—Simcoe
The question
York—Simcoe: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
York—Simcoe, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 26% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Caroline Mulroney
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYork—Simcoe | 58.0% | 25.7% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +17.8 | 33.4% −7.7 | 20.3% −11.0 | 3.9% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAROLINE MULRONEY Elected | PC | 24,705 | 59.4 | — |
| FATIMA CHAUDHRY | OLP | 9,941 | 23.9 | — |
| JUSTIN GRAHAM | NDP | 3,206 | 7.7 | — |
| JENNIFER BARON | GP | 2,006 | 4.8 | — |
| BRENT FELLMAN | OTH | 841 | 2.0 | — |
| SEAN CONROY | OTH | 434 | 1.0 | — |
| ALANA HOLLANDER | OTH | 317 | 0.8 | — |
| FRANCO COLAVECCHIA | OTH | 138 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029