Riding profile

Barrie—Innisfil

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on east

The question

Barrie—Innisfil: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 53.4%
  • OLP 27.9%
  • NDP 13.4%
  • OTH 2.9%
  • GP 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereBarrie—Innisfil 53.4%27.9%13.4%2.9%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +12.0 32.3% −4.4 19.5% −6.1 4.0% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Barrie—Innisfil, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 28% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Andrea Khanjin

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
28.1 pts
Turnout
41.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ANDREA KHANJIN Elected PC 22,048 54.1 —
DANE LEE OLP 10,613 26.1 —
ANDREW HARRIGAN NDP 5,442 13.4 —
STEPHEN CIESIELSKI GP 1,655 4.1 —
SAM MANGIAPANE OTH 814 2.0 —
ANNA YURYEVA OTH 174 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029