Riding profile
Barrie—Innisfil
The question
Barrie—Innisfil: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Barrie—Innisfil, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 29% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Andrea Khanjin
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarrie—Innisfil | 52.3% | 29.0% | 14.1% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +12.1 | 33.4% −4.3 | 20.3% −6.1 | 3.9% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDREA KHANJIN Elected | PC | 22,048 | 54.1 | — |
| DANE LEE | OLP | 10,613 | 26.1 | — |
| ANDREW HARRIGAN | NDP | 5,442 | 13.4 | — |
| STEPHEN CIESIELSKI | GP | 1,655 | 4.1 | — |
| SAM MANGIAPANE | OTH | 814 | 2.0 | — |
| ANNA YURYEVA | OTH | 174 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029