Simcoe North
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simcoe North | 49.9% | 27.0% | 12.0% | 5.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.6%+9.3 | 30.7%−3.7 | 20.8%−8.8 | 3.6%+2.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Jill Dunlop · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 23.8 points, with 46.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 23.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Dunlop Elected | PC | 24,849 | 51.4 |
| Walter Alvarez-Bardales | OLP | 13,328 | 27.6 |
| Jordi Malcolm | NDP | 4,813 | 10.0 |
| Chris Carr | GP | 3,214 | 6.7 |
| Dave Brunelle | OTH | 1,582 | 3.3 |
| William Joslin | OTH | 579 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC, safe seat
- York—Simcoe PC, safe seat
- Barrie—Innisfil PC, safe seat
- Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora PC, toss-up
- Simcoe—Grey PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated