Riding profile

Simcoe North

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on sw

The question

Simcoe North: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 50.9%
  • OLP 28.3%
  • NDP 10.8%
  • GP 5.1%
  • OTH 4.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HereSimcoe North 50.9%28.3%10.8%5.1%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +9.4 32.3% −3.9 19.5% −8.7 2.8% +2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Simcoe North, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 28% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Jill Dunlop

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
23.8 pts
Turnout
46.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
JILL DUNLOP Elected PC 24,849 51.4 —
WALTER ALVAREZ-BARDALES OLP 13,328 27.6 —
JORDI MALCOLM NDP 4,813 9.9 —
CHRIS CARR GP 3,214 6.7 —
DAVE BRUNELLE OTH 1,582 3.3 —
WILLIAM JOSLIN OTH 579 1.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029