Riding profile
Simcoe North
The question
Simcoe North: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Simcoe North, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 29% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Jill Dunlop
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSimcoe North | 50.0% | 29.3% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +9.8 | 33.4% −4.0 | 20.3% −8.8 | 3.9% +2.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JILL DUNLOP Elected | PC | 24,849 | 51.4 | — |
| WALTER ALVAREZ-BARDALES | OLP | 13,328 | 27.6 | — |
| JORDI MALCOLM | NDP | 4,813 | 9.9 | — |
| CHRIS CARR | GP | 3,214 | 6.7 | — |
| DAVE BRUNELLE | OTH | 1,582 | 3.3 | — |
| WILLIAM JOSLIN | OTH | 579 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029