Riding profile
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
The question
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHaliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | 49.8% | 25.9% | 14.4% | 6.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +8.4 | 32.3% −6.4 | 19.5% −5.1 | 4.0% +2.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 26% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Laurie Scott
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAURIE SCOTT Elected | PC | 26,446 | 52.0 | — |
| ALISON BENNIE | OLP | 11,676 | 23.0 | — |
| BARBARA DOYLE | NDP | 6,980 | 13.7 | — |
| TOM REGINA | GP | 2,593 | 5.1 | — |
| JACQUIE BARKER | OTH | 1,221 | 2.4 | — |
| BRIAN KERR | OTH | 969 | 1.9 | — |
| ZACHARY TISDALE | OTH | 384 | 0.8 | — |
| GENE BALFOUR | IND | 287 | 0.6 | — |
| BILL DENBY | OTH | 275 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029