Riding profile
Peterborough—Kawartha
The question
Peterborough—Kawartha: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Peterborough—Kawartha, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 40% vote share, against 39% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dave Smith
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 78%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePeterborough—Kawartha | 39.7% | 38.9% | 17.6% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +6.3 | 40.2% −1.3 | 20.3% −2.6 | 3.9% −1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVE SMITH Elected | PC | 22,417 | 40.7 | — |
| ADAM HOPKINS | OLP | 20,217 | 36.7 | — |
| JEN DECK | NDP | 9,290 | 16.9 | — |
| LUCAS GRAHAM | GP | 1,745 | 3.2 | — |
| ANDREW ROUDNY | OTH | 859 | 1.6 | — |
| BRIAN MARTINDALE | OTH | 581 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029