Riding profile

Peterborough—Kawartha

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on east

The question

Peterborough—Kawartha: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
1.9
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 40.1%
  • OLP 38.4%
  • NDP 16.9%
  • OTH 3.1%
  • GP 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HerePeterborough—Kawartha 40.1%38.4%16.9%3.1%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% −1.3 32.3% +6.2 19.5% −2.6 4.0% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Peterborough—Kawartha, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 40% vote share, against 38% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dave Smith

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
4.0 pts
Turnout
52.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
DAVE SMITH Elected PC 22,417 40.7 —
ADAM HOPKINS OLP 20,217 36.7 —
JEN DECK NDP 9,290 16.9 —
LUCAS GRAHAM GP 1,745 3.2 —
ANDREW ROUDNY OTH 859 1.6 —
BRIAN MARTINDALE OTH 581 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029