Riding profile

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on provincewide

The question

Hastings—Lennox and Addington: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Hastings—Lennox and Addington, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 34% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ric Bresee

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.0
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 44.0%
  • OLP 34.0%
  • NDP 13.4%
  • OTH 5.4%
  • GP 3.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereHastings—Lennox and Addington 44.0%34.0%13.4%5.4%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +3.7 33.4% +0.6 20.3% −6.9 2.2% +3.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
18.8 pts
Turnout
49.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.9 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
RIC BRESEE Elected PC 20,249 48.6
LYNN RIGBY OLP 12,398 29.8
JESSICA ZIELKE NDP 4,810 11.5
DEREK SLOAN OTH 2,318 5.6
MIKE HOLBROOK GP 1,376 3.3
GLENN TYRRELL OTH 528 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029