Riding profile
Kingston and the Islands
The question
Kingston and the Islands: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 41.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston and the Islands | 63.0% | 21.8% | 12.4% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +30.8 | 41.4% −19.6 | 19.5% −7.1 | 4.0% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Kingston and the Islands, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 63% vote share, against 22% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ted Hsu
Sits with OLP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TED HSU Elected | OLP | 33,288 | 61.6 | — |
| IAN CHAPELLE | PC | 12,022 | 22.2 | — |
| ELLIOT GOODELL UGALDE | NDP | 6,663 | 12.3 | — |
| ZACHARY TYPHAIR | GP | 1,195 | 2.2 | — |
| ALLAN WILSON | OTH | 565 | 1.1 | — |
| JAMES MCNAIR | OTH | 331 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029