Riding profile
Kingston and the Islands
The question
Kingston and the Islands: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Kingston and the Islands, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 64% vote share, against 20% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ted Hsu
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 44.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston and the Islands | 64.4% | 20.4% | 13.0% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +31.1 | 40.2% −19.8 | 20.3% −7.2 | 3.9% −2.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TED HSU Elected | OLP | 33,288 | 61.6 | — |
| IAN CHAPELLE | PC | 12,022 | 22.2 | — |
| ELLIOT GOODELL UGALDE | NDP | 6,663 | 12.3 | — |
| ZACHARY TYPHAIR | GP | 1,195 | 2.2 | — |
| ALLAN WILSON | OTH | 565 | 1.1 | — |
| JAMES MCNAIR | OTH | 331 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029