Riding profile
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
The question
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 30% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Steve Clark
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLeeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | 53.4% | 30.2% | 10.6% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +13.1 | 33.4% −3.2 | 20.3% −9.6 | 3.9% −0.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEVE CLARK Elected | PC | 25,118 | 55.1 | — |
| LORNA JEAN EDMONDS | OLP | 12,392 | 27.2 | — |
| CHRIS WILSON | NDP | 4,489 | 9.8 | — |
| FIONA JAGER | GP | 1,926 | 4.2 | — |
| CHRIS GARRAH | OTH | 743 | 1.6 | — |
| DANIEL CALABRETTA | OTH | 561 | 1.2 | — |
| MARK SNOW | OTH | 342 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029