Riding profile
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
The question
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLeeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | 54.4% | 29.0% | 10.0% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +13.0 | 32.3% −3.2 | 19.5% −9.6 | 4.0% +0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 29% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Steve Clark
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEVE CLARK Elected | PC | 25,118 | 55.1 | — |
| LORNA JEAN EDMONDS | OLP | 12,392 | 27.2 | — |
| CHRIS WILSON | NDP | 4,489 | 9.8 | — |
| FIONA JAGER | GP | 1,926 | 4.2 | — |
| CHRIS GARRAH | OTH | 743 | 1.6 | — |
| DANIEL CALABRETTA | OTH | 561 | 1.2 | — |
| MARK SNOW | OTH | 342 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029