Riding profile
Ottawa Centre
The question
Ottawa Centre: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Ottawa Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 56% vote share, against 26% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Catherine McKenney
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa Centre | 56.4% | 26.3% | 14.6% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +36.1 | 33.4% −7.1 | 40.2% −25.6 | 3.9% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CATHERINE MCKENNEY Elected | NDP | 32,483 | 55.7 | — |
| THOMAS SIMPSON | OLP | 13,591 | 23.3 | — |
| SCOTT HEALEY | PC | 9,573 | 16.4 | — |
| SIMON BECKETT | GP | 1,550 | 2.7 | — |
| MARIA DESOUZA | OTH | 468 | 0.8 | — |
| SHANNON BOSCHY | OTH | 321 | 0.6 | — |
| CASHTON PERRY | OTH | 232 | 0.4 | — |
| JOSH RACHLIS | IND | 102 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029