Ottawa South
Provincial riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa South | 53.3% | 23.3% | 19.0% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 30.7%+22.6 | 40.6%−17.3 | 20.8%−1.8 | 4.3%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Fraser · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 28.6 points, with 42.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 30.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fraser Elected | OLP | 22,326 | 53.2 |
| Jan Gao | PC | 10,315 | 24.6 |
| Morgan Gay | NDP | 7,447 | 17.8 |
| Nira Dookeran | GP | 1,206 | 2.9 |
| Alex Perrier | OTH | 638 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean NDP, safe seat
- Nepean OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated