Riding profile
Ottawa South
The question
Ottawa South: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa South | 54.8% | 24.2% | 17.8% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +22.5 | 41.4% −17.2 | 19.5% −1.8 | 4.0% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Ottawa South, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 55% vote share, against 24% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Fraser
Sits with OLP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHN FRASER Elected | OLP | 22,326 | 53.2 | — |
| JAN GAO | PC | 10,315 | 24.6 | — |
| MORGAN GAY | NDP | 7,447 | 17.8 | — |
| NIRA DOOKERAN | GP | 1,206 | 2.9 | — |
| ALEX PERRIER | OTH | 638 | 1.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029