Riding profile
Ottawa South
The question
Ottawa South: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Ottawa South, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 56% vote share, against 23% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Fraser
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa South | 56.1% | 22.7% | 18.5% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +22.7 | 40.2% −17.5 | 20.3% −1.8 | 3.9% −1.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHN FRASER Elected | OLP | 22,326 | 53.2 | — |
| JAN GAO | PC | 10,315 | 24.6 | — |
| MORGAN GAY | NDP | 7,447 | 17.8 | — |
| NIRA DOOKERAN | GP | 1,206 | 2.9 | — |
| ALEX PERRIER | OTH | 638 | 1.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029