Riding profile
Ottawa—Vanier
The question
Ottawa—Vanier: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Ottawa—Vanier, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 54% vote share, against 21% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lucille Collard
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa—Vanier | 54.5% | 20.8% | 19.0% | 4.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +21.1 | 40.2% −19.5 | 20.3% −1.2 | 3.9% +0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCILLE COLLARD Elected | OLP | 20,721 | 51.5 | — |
| MARILISSA GOSSELIN | PC | 9,085 | 22.6 | — |
| MYRIAM DJILANE | NDP | 7,350 | 18.3 | — |
| CHRISTIAN PROULX | GP | 2,083 | 5.2 | — |
| COREEN CORCORAN | OTH | 525 | 1.3 | — |
| RISHABH BHATIA | OTH | 511 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029