Riding profile

Ottawa West—Nepean

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on east

The question

Ottawa West—Nepean: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 49.0%
  • PC 28.3%
  • OLP 19.7%
  • OTH 2.3%
  • GP 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereOttawa West—Nepean 49.0%28.3%19.7%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +29.5 41.4% −13.2 32.3% −12.6 4.0% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ottawa West—Nepean, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 28% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chandra Pasma

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
20.6 pts
Turnout
45.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
CHANDRA PASMA Elected NDP 20,087 49.3
HUSIEN ABU-RAYASH PC 11,697 28.7
BRETT SZMUL OLP 7,229 17.8
SOPHIA ANDREW-JOINER GP 976 2.4
RYLAN VROOM OTH 733 1.8
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029