Riding profile
Ottawa West—Nepean
The question
Ottawa West—Nepean: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa West—Nepean | 49.0% | 28.3% | 19.7% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +29.5 | 41.4% −13.2 | 32.3% −12.6 | 4.0% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Ottawa West—Nepean, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 28% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chandra Pasma
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHANDRA PASMA Elected | NDP | 20,087 | 49.3 | — |
| HUSIEN ABU-RAYASH | PC | 11,697 | 28.7 | — |
| BRETT SZMUL | OLP | 7,229 | 17.8 | — |
| SOPHIA ANDREW-JOINER | GP | 976 | 2.4 | — |
| RYLAN VROOM | OTH | 733 | 1.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029