Riding profile

Ottawa West—Nepean

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on east

The question

Ottawa West—Nepean: a safe seat for the NDP?

Editorial read

Ottawa West—Nepean, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 50% vote share, against 27% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chandra Pasma

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 50.0%
  • PC 26.9%
  • OLP 20.7%
  • GP 1.9%
  • OTH 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP GP
HereOttawa West—Nepean 50.0%26.9%20.7%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 20.3% +29.8 40.2% −13.4 33.4% −12.7 3.9% −2.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
20.6 pts
Turnout
45.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
CHANDRA PASMA Elected NDP 20,087 49.3
HUSIEN ABU-RAYASH PC 11,697 28.7
BRETT SZMUL OLP 7,229 17.8
SOPHIA ANDREW-JOINER GP 976 2.4
RYLAN VROOM OTH 733 1.8
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029