Riding profile
Ottawa West—Nepean
The question
Ottawa West—Nepean: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Ottawa West—Nepean, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 50% vote share, against 27% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chandra Pasma
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa West—Nepean | 50.0% | 26.9% | 20.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +29.8 | 40.2% −13.4 | 33.4% −12.7 | 3.9% −2.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHANDRA PASMA Elected | NDP | 20,087 | 49.3 | — |
| HUSIEN ABU-RAYASH | PC | 11,697 | 28.7 | — |
| BRETT SZMUL | OLP | 7,229 | 17.8 | — |
| SOPHIA ANDREW-JOINER | GP | 976 | 2.4 | — |
| RYLAN VROOM | OTH | 733 | 1.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029