Riding profile
Orléans
The question
Orléans: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Orléans, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 57% vote share, against 33% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stephen Blais
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrléans | 57.1% | 33.5% | 6.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +23.8 | 40.2% −6.7 | 20.3% −13.5 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHEN BLAIS Elected | OLP | 30,482 | 54.2 | — |
| STÉPHAN PLOURDE | PC | 19,868 | 35.3 | — |
| MATTHEW SÉVIGNY | NDP | 3,378 | 6.0 | — |
| MICHELLE PETERSEN | GP | 1,398 | 2.5 | — |
| PATRICIA HOOPER | OTH | 636 | 1.1 | — |
| KEN LEWIS | OTH | 233 | 0.4 | — |
| ARABELLA VIDA | IND | 138 | 0.3 | — |
| BURTHOMLEY DOUZABLE | IND | 129 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029