Riding profile
Orléans
The question
Orléans: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrléans | 55.7% | 34.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +23.5 | 41.4% −6.6 | 19.5% −13.4 | 4.0% −1.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Orléans, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 56% vote share, against 35% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stephen Blais
Sits with OLP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHEN BLAIS Elected | OLP | 30,482 | 54.2 | — |
| STÉPHAN PLOURDE | PC | 19,868 | 35.3 | — |
| MATTHEW SÉVIGNY | NDP | 3,378 | 6.0 | — |
| MICHELLE PETERSEN | GP | 1,398 | 2.5 | — |
| PATRICIA HOOPER | OTH | 636 | 1.1 | — |
| KEN LEWIS | OTH | 233 | 0.4 | — |
| ARABELLA VIDA | IND | 138 | 0.3 | — |
| BURTHOMLEY DOUZABLE | IND | 129 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029