Riding profile
Nepean
The question
Nepean: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Nepean, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 52% vote share, against 37% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tyler Watt
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNepean | 51.5% | 36.6% | 9.6% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +18.1 | 40.2% −3.6 | 20.3% −10.7 | 3.9% −2.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TYLER WATT Elected | OLP | 22,683 | 48.5 | — |
| ALEX LEWIS | PC | 17,962 | 38.4 | — |
| MAX BLAIR | NDP | 4,116 | 8.8 | — |
| SHEILAGH MCLEAN | GP | 885 | 1.9 | — |
| JOHN KOVACH | OTH | 485 | 1.0 | — |
| CARMEN CHARBONNEAU | OTH | 385 | 0.8 | — |
| PETER WESTAWAY | IND | 223 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029