Riding profile
Carleton
The question
Carleton: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCarleton | 48.9% | 40.2% | 7.3% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +7.5 | 32.3% +8.0 | 19.5% −12.3 | 4.0% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Carleton, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 40% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
George Darouze
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEORGE DAROUZE Elected | PC | 26,158 | 49.6 | — |
| BRANDON BAY | OLP | 20,335 | 38.6 | — |
| SHERIN FAILI | NDP | 3,763 | 7.1 | — |
| MYSTIC PLAUNT | GP | 956 | 1.8 | — |
| ROB STOCKI | OTH | 699 | 1.3 | — |
| MYLES DEAR | OTH | 346 | 0.7 | — |
| BRUCE ANTHONY FAULKNER | OTH | 263 | 0.5 | — |
| BRIAN HULL | IND | 202 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029