Riding profile
Carleton
The question
Carleton: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Carleton, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
George Darouze
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.3
- P(close race)
- 11%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCarleton | 47.8% | 41.6% | 7.9% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +7.6 | 33.4% +8.2 | 20.3% −12.4 | 2.2% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEORGE DAROUZE Elected | PC | 26,158 | 49.6 | — |
| BRANDON BAY | OLP | 20,335 | 38.6 | — |
| SHERIN FAILI | NDP | 3,763 | 7.1 | — |
| MYSTIC PLAUNT | GP | 956 | 1.8 | — |
| ROB STOCKI | OTH | 699 | 1.3 | — |
| MYLES DEAR | OTH | 346 | 0.7 | — |
| BRUCE ANTHONY FAULKNER | OTH | 263 | 0.5 | — |
| BRIAN HULL | IND | 202 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029