Riding profile
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
The question
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLanark—Frontenac—Kingston | 48.4% | 34.6% | 10.7% | 4.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +7.0 | 32.3% +2.3 | 19.5% −8.9 | 4.0% +0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 35% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Jordan
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHN JORDAN Elected | PC | 23,396 | 49.1 | — |
| ROB RAINER | OLP | 15,627 | 32.8 | — |
| JOHN MACRAE | NDP | 5,030 | 10.6 | — |
| MARLENE SPRUYT | GP | 1,595 | 3.4 | — |
| WENDY DILLISTONE-WHITAKER | OTH | 982 | 2.1 | — |
| DAVID MOTTON | OTH | 695 | 1.5 | — |
| SHANE O'NEILL | IND | 328 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029