Riding profile
Kanata—Carleton
The question
Kanata—Carleton: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Kanata—Carleton, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 51% vote share, against 39% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Karen McCrimmon
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKanata—Carleton | 50.8% | 38.8% | 7.9% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +17.4 | 40.2% −1.5 | 20.3% −12.3 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAREN MCCRIMMON Elected | OLP | 22,811 | 47.9 | — |
| SCOTT PHELAN | PC | 19,353 | 40.6 | — |
| DAVE BELCHER | NDP | 3,419 | 7.2 | — |
| JENNIFER PURDY | GP | 1,199 | 2.5 | — |
| ELIZABETH WATSON | OTH | 503 | 1.1 | — |
| FRANK JAKUBOWSKI | OTH | 323 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029