Riding profile
Kanata—Carleton
The question
Kanata—Carleton: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKanata—Carleton | 49.5% | 40.1% | 7.3% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +17.3 | 41.4% −1.4 | 19.5% −12.2 | 4.0% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Kanata—Carleton, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 50% vote share, against 40% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Karen McCrimmon
Sits with OLP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAREN MCCRIMMON Elected | OLP | 22,811 | 47.9 | — |
| SCOTT PHELAN | PC | 19,353 | 40.6 | — |
| DAVE BELCHER | NDP | 3,419 | 7.2 | — |
| JENNIFER PURDY | GP | 1,199 | 2.5 | — |
| ELIZABETH WATSON | OTH | 503 | 1.1 | — |
| FRANK JAKUBOWSKI | OTH | 323 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029