Riding profile
Bay of Quinte
The question
Bay of Quinte: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Bay of Quinte, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 34% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tyler Allsopp
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBay of Quinte | 42.3% | 34.4% | 19.6% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +2.1 | 33.4% +1.0 | 20.3% −0.7 | 3.9% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TYLER ALLSOPP Elected | PC | 20,606 | 44.1 | — |
| DAVID O'NEIL | OLP | 14,652 | 31.4 | — |
| AMANDA ROBERTSON | NDP | 8,793 | 18.8 | — |
| LORI BORTHWICK | GP | 1,618 | 3.5 | — |
| ANTHONY ZAMBITO | OTH | 518 | 1.1 | — |
| NICK MADDISON | OTH | 501 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029