Riding profile

Bay of Quinte

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on east

The question

Bay of Quinte: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 43.5%
  • OLP 33.2%
  • NDP 18.9%
  • OTH 2.6%
  • GP 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereBay of Quinte 43.5%33.2%18.9%2.6%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +2.1 32.3% +0.9 19.5% −0.7 4.0% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Bay of Quinte, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 33% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tyler Allsopp

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
12.8 pts
Turnout
48.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
TYLER ALLSOPP Elected PC 20,606 44.1 —
DAVID O'NEIL OLP 14,652 31.4 —
AMANDA ROBERTSON NDP 8,793 18.8 —
LORI BORTHWICK GP 1,618 3.5 —
ANTHONY ZAMBITO OTH 518 1.1 —
NICK MADDISON OTH 501 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029