Riding profile
Northumberland—Peterborough South
The question
Northumberland—Peterborough South: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorthumberland—Peterborough South | 51.4% | 34.1% | 9.4% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +10.0 | 32.3% +1.9 | 19.5% −10.1 | 4.0% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Northumberland—Peterborough South, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 34% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. David Piccini
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVID PICCINI Elected | PC | 28,502 | 52.1 | — |
| DOROTHY NORONHA | OLP | 17,705 | 32.4 | — |
| BRUCE LEPAGE | NDP | 5,097 | 9.3 | — |
| MAXWELL GROVES | GP | 1,998 | 3.6 | — |
| JOSHUA CHALHOUB | OTH | 717 | 1.3 | — |
| FLORIAN BORS | OTH | 673 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029