Riding profile
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
The question
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 24% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Billy Denault
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 27.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRenfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | 51.4% | 23.8% | 18.6% | 4.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +11.1 | 33.4% −9.5 | 20.3% −1.7 | 2.2% +1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLY DENAULT Elected | PC | 24,297 | 54.8 | — |
| OLIVER JACOB | OLP | 9,804 | 22.1 | — |
| MARSHALL BUCHANAN | NDP | 6,607 | 14.9 | — |
| KEVIN HOLM | OTH | 1,587 | 3.6 | — |
| ANNA MARIA DOLAN | GP | 1,123 | 2.5 | — |
| MARK DICKSON | OTH | 893 | 2.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029