Riding profile
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
The question
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRenfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | 52.1% | 23.0% | 17.8% | 6.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +10.7 | 32.3% −9.3 | 19.5% −1.7 | 4.0% +2.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 23% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Billy Denault
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLY DENAULT Elected | PC | 24,297 | 54.8 | — |
| OLIVER JACOB | OLP | 9,804 | 22.1 | — |
| MARSHALL BUCHANAN | NDP | 6,607 | 14.9 | — |
| KEVIN HOLM | OTH | 1,587 | 3.6 | — |
| ANNA MARIA DOLAN | GP | 1,123 | 2.5 | — |
| MARK DICKSON | OTH | 893 | 2.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029