Riding profile

Nipissing

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Nipissing: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 52.1%
  • NDP 28.0%
  • OLP 13.5%
  • OTH 3.7%
  • GP 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP OTH
HereNipissing 52.1%28.0%13.5%3.7%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +10.7 19.5% +8.5 32.3% −18.7 4.0% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nipissing, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 28% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Victor Fedeli

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
29.6 pts
Turnout
48.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
VIC FEDELI Elected PC 17,356 54.8 —
LOREN MICK NDP 7,980 25.2 —
LIAM MCGARRY OLP 3,996 12.6 —
COLTON CHAPUT GP 1,292 4.1 —
MICHELLE LASHBROOK OTH 536 1.7 —
SCOTT MOONEY OTH 496 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029