Riding profile

Nipissing

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Nipissing: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Nipissing, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 29% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Victor Fedeli

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 51.4%
  • NDP 28.9%
  • OLP 14.3%
  • GP 3.7%
  • OTH 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP GP
HereNipissing 51.4%28.9%14.3%3.7%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +11.1 20.3% +8.6 33.4% −19.0 3.9% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
29.6 pts
Turnout
48.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
VIC FEDELI Elected PC 17,356 54.8
LOREN MICK NDP 7,980 25.2
LIAM MCGARRY OLP 3,996 12.6
COLTON CHAPUT GP 1,292 4.1
MICHELLE LASHBROOK OTH 536 1.7
SCOTT MOONEY OTH 496 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029