Riding profile
Nipissing
The question
Nipissing: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Nipissing, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 29% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Victor Fedeli
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNipissing | 51.4% | 28.9% | 14.3% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +11.1 | 20.3% +8.6 | 33.4% −19.0 | 3.9% −0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIC FEDELI Elected | PC | 17,356 | 54.8 | — |
| LOREN MICK | NDP | 7,980 | 25.2 | — |
| LIAM MCGARRY | OLP | 3,996 | 12.6 | — |
| COLTON CHAPUT | GP | 1,292 | 4.1 | — |
| MICHELLE LASHBROOK | OTH | 536 | 1.7 | — |
| SCOTT MOONEY | OTH | 496 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029