Timiskaming—Cochrane
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | 48.0% | 34.0% | 9.4% | 4.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.8%+27.2 | 40.6%−6.5 | 30.7%−21.3 | 3.6%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Vanthof · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 6.1 points, with 48.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 14.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Vanthof Elected | NDP | 11,085 | 44.0 |
| Tory Delaurier | PC | 9,549 | 37.9 |
| Rick Ellsmere | OLP | 2,446 | 9.7 |
| Kris Rivard | GP | 1,359 | 5.4 |
| Stephen Macleod | OTH | 777 | 3.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nickel Belt NDP, safe seat
- Sudbury NDP, safe seat
- Nipissing PC, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka PC, toss-up
- Timmins PC, safe seat
- Simcoe North PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated