Riding profile
Timiskaming—Cochrane
The question
Timiskaming—Cochrane: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTimiskaming—Cochrane | 46.7% | 35.3% | 10.6% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +27.1 | 41.4% −6.1 | 32.3% −21.6 | 2.8% +1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Timiskaming—Cochrane, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 47% vote share, against 35% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Vanthof
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHN VANTHOF Elected | NDP | 11,085 | 44.0 | — |
| TORY DELAURIER | PC | 9,549 | 37.9 | — |
| RICK ELLSMERE | OLP | 2,446 | 9.7 | — |
| KRIS RIVARD | GP | 1,359 | 5.4 | — |
| STEPHEN MACLEOD | OTH | 777 | 3.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029