Riding profile
Timiskaming—Cochrane
The question
Timiskaming—Cochrane: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Timiskaming—Cochrane, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 48% vote share, against 34% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Vanthof
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTimiskaming—Cochrane | 47.6% | 34.4% | 11.4% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +27.4 | 40.2% −5.9 | 33.4% −22.0 | 3.9% +1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHN VANTHOF Elected | NDP | 11,085 | 44.0 | — |
| TORY DELAURIER | PC | 9,549 | 37.9 | — |
| RICK ELLSMERE | OLP | 2,446 | 9.7 | — |
| KRIS RIVARD | GP | 1,359 | 5.4 | — |
| STEPHEN MACLEOD | OTH | 777 | 3.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029