Riding profile

Nickel Belt

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on provincewide

The question

Nickel Belt: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 48.8%
  • PC 33.3%
  • OLP 13.8%
  • OTH 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereNickel Belt 48.8%33.3%13.8%3.7%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +29.3 41.4% −8.1 32.3% −18.5 4.0% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nickel Belt, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 33% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

France Gélinas

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
12.7 pts
Turnout
50.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
FRANCE GÉLINAS Elected NDP 17,123 48.4 —
RANDY HAZLETT PC 12,629 35.7 —
NATALIE LABBÉE OLP 3,874 10.9 —
PAUL DIVINCENZO OTH 676 1.9 —
CONNIE HILL GP 631 1.8 —
JAMES CHRETIEN OTH 470 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029