Riding profile
Nickel Belt
The question
Nickel Belt: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Nickel Belt, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 50% vote share, against 31% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
France Gélinas
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNickel Belt | 50.3% | 31.0% | 15.1% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +30.0 | 40.2% −9.2 | 33.4% −18.2 | 3.9% −2.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRANCE GÉLINAS Elected | NDP | 17,123 | 48.4 | — |
| RANDY HAZLETT | PC | 12,629 | 35.7 | — |
| NATALIE LABBÉE | OLP | 3,874 | 10.9 | — |
| PAUL DIVINCENZO | OTH | 676 | 1.9 | — |
| CONNIE HILL | GP | 631 | 1.8 | — |
| JAMES CHRETIEN | OTH | 470 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029