Riding profile

Sudbury

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Sudbury: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 49.4%
  • PC 36.0%
  • OLP 11.5%
  • OTH 2.1%
  • GP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereSudbury 49.4%36.0%11.5%2.1%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +29.9 41.4% −5.4 32.3% −20.7 4.0% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sudbury, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 36% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jamie West

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
8.1 pts
Turnout
47.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
JAMIE WEST Elected NDP 14,760 46.7 —
MAX MASSIMILIANO PC 12,194 38.6 —
RASHID MUKHTAR CHOUDHRY OLP 3,352 10.6 —
DAVID ROBINSON GP 748 2.4 —
BRADY LEGAULT OTH 421 1.3 —
J. DAVID POPESCU IND 106 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029