Riding profile
Sudbury
The question
Sudbury: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Sudbury, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 50% vote share, against 35% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jamie West
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSudbury | 50.3% | 35.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +30.0 | 40.2% −5.2 | 33.4% −21.1 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAMIE WEST Elected | NDP | 14,760 | 46.7 | — |
| MAX MASSIMILIANO | PC | 12,194 | 38.6 | — |
| RASHID MUKHTAR CHOUDHRY | OLP | 3,352 | 10.6 | — |
| DAVID ROBINSON | GP | 748 | 2.4 | — |
| BRADY LEGAULT | OTH | 421 | 1.3 | — |
| J. DAVID POPESCU | IND | 106 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029