Riding profile

Sudbury

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Sudbury: a safe seat for the NDP?

Editorial read

Sudbury, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 50% vote share, against 35% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jamie West

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 50.3%
  • PC 35.0%
  • OLP 12.3%
  • GP 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP GP
HereSudbury 50.3%35.0%12.3%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 20.3% +30.0 40.2% −5.2 33.4% −21.1 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
8.1 pts
Turnout
47.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
JAMIE WEST Elected NDP 14,760 46.7
MAX MASSIMILIANO PC 12,194 38.6
RASHID MUKHTAR CHOUDHRY OLP 3,352 10.6
DAVID ROBINSON GP 748 2.4
BRADY LEGAULT OTH 421 1.3
J. DAVID POPESCU IND 106 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029