Riding profile
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
The question
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 31% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Paul Vickers
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBruce—Grey—Owen Sound | 42.8% | 31.2% | 12.0% | 9.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +2.5 | 33.4% −2.1 | 3.9% +8.1 | 20.3% −10.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAUL VICKERS Elected | PC | 20,158 | 44.1 | — |
| SELWYN J. HICKS | OLP | 13,445 | 29.4 | — |
| JOEL LOUGHEAD | GP | 5,693 | 12.5 | — |
| JAMES HARRIS | NDP | 3,611 | 7.9 | — |
| ANN GILLIES | OTH | 1,006 | 2.2 | — |
| VINCENT GRIMALDI | OTH | 930 | 2.0 | — |
| MICHAEL BUTT | OTH | 681 | 1.5 | — |
| MATT FRITZ | OTH | 148 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029