Riding profile
Waterloo
The question
Waterloo: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Waterloo, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 52% vote share, against 26% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Catherine Fife
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWaterloo | 51.9% | 26.0% | 17.5% | 3.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +31.6 | 40.2% −14.3 | 33.4% −15.9 | 3.9% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CATHERINE FIFE Elected | NDP | 25,055 | 50.2 | — |
| PETER TURKINGTON | PC | 13,670 | 27.4 | — |
| CLAYTON MOORE | OLP | 7,839 | 15.7 | — |
| SHEFAZA ESMAIL | GP | 1,814 | 3.6 | — |
| SUJA BIBER | OTH | 543 | 1.1 | — |
| CHRIS MARTIN | OTH | 477 | 1.0 | — |
| JAMES SCHULZ | OTH | 325 | 0.7 | — |
| PETER HOUSE | OTH | 161 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029