Riding profile
Waterloo
The question
Waterloo: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWaterloo | 50.7% | 27.1% | 16.6% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +31.1 | 41.4% −14.3 | 32.3% −15.7 | 4.0% −0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Waterloo, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 51% vote share, against 27% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Catherine Fife
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CATHERINE FIFE Elected | NDP | 25,055 | 50.2 | — |
| PETER TURKINGTON | PC | 13,670 | 27.4 | — |
| CLAYTON MOORE | OLP | 7,839 | 15.7 | — |
| SHEFAZA ESMAIL | GP | 1,814 | 3.6 | — |
| SUJA BIBER | OTH | 543 | 1.1 | — |
| CHRIS MARTIN | OTH | 477 | 1.0 | — |
| JAMES SCHULZ | OTH | 325 | 0.7 | — |
| PETER HOUSE | OTH | 161 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029