Riding profile

Guelph

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Guelph: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Editorial read

Guelph, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 22% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mike Schreiner

Sits with GP

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

GP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • GP 56.5%
  • PC 22.4%
  • OLP 13.1%
  • NDP 7.3%
  • OTH 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

GP PC OLP NDP
HereGuelph 56.5%22.4%13.1%7.3%
Provincial averageOntario 3.9% +52.5 40.2% −17.8 33.4% −20.2 20.3% −12.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
GP
Margin
33.0 pts
Turnout
51.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
MIKE SCHREINER Elected GP 34,238 56.9 —
ROBERT COOLE PC 14,386 23.9 —
MUSTAFA ZUBERI OLP 6,874 11.4 —
CAMERON SPENCE NDP 3,497 5.8 —
CARINA FRASER OTH 1,137 1.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
on_2029