Riding profile

Guelph

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Guelph: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Current forecast

GP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • GP 54.9%
  • PC 23.7%
  • OLP 12.4%
  • NDP 6.7%
  • OTH 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

GP PC OLP NDP
HereGuelph 54.9%23.7%12.4%6.7%
Provincial averageOntario 2.8% +52.0 41.4% −17.7 32.3% −19.9 19.5% −12.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Guelph, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 24% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mike Schreiner

Sits with GP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
GP
Margin
33.0 pts
Turnout
51.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
MIKE SCHREINER Elected GP 34,238 56.9 —
ROBERT COOLE PC 14,386 23.9 —
MUSTAFA ZUBERI OLP 6,874 11.4 —
CAMERON SPENCE NDP 3,497 5.8 —
CARINA FRASER OTH 1,137 1.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029