Riding profile
Kitchener—Conestoga
The question
Kitchener—Conestoga: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Kitchener—Conestoga, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 40% vote share, against 31% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Mike Harris
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKitchener—Conestoga | 40.1% | 31.3% | 20.1% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% −0.1 | 33.4% −2.1 | 20.3% −0.2 | 3.9% +1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIKE HARRIS Elected | PC | 16,946 | 41.5 | — |
| JOE GOWING | OLP | 12,031 | 29.5 | — |
| JODI SZIMANSKI | NDP | 7,551 | 18.5 | — |
| BRAYDEN WAGENAAR | GP | 2,227 | 5.5 | — |
| JIM KARAHALIOS | OTH | 1,152 | 2.8 | — |
| PATRICK DOUCETTE | OTH | 890 | 2.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029