Riding profile

Perth—Wellington

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on sw

The question

Perth—Wellington: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 46.9%
  • OLP 28.6%
  • NDP 13.4%
  • GP 6.0%
  • OTH 5.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HerePerth—Wellington 46.9%28.6%13.4%6.0%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +5.5 32.3% −3.6 19.5% −6.1 2.8% +3.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Perth—Wellington, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 29% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matthew Rae

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
19.5 pts
Turnout
52.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
MATTHEW RAE Elected PC 21,285 47.4 —
ASHLEY FOX OLP 12,519 27.9 —
JASON DAVIS NDP 5,666 12.6 —
IAN MORTON GP 3,381 7.5 —
JAMES MONTGOMERY OTH 1,354 3.0 —
SARAH ZENUH OTH 475 1.1 —
ROB SMINK OTH 229 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029