Riding profile
Perth—Wellington
The question
Perth—Wellington: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Perth—Wellington, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 30% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Matthew Rae
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePerth—Wellington | 46.0% | 29.7% | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +5.8 | 33.4% −3.7 | 20.3% −6.1 | 3.9% +3.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MATTHEW RAE Elected | PC | 21,285 | 47.4 | — |
| ASHLEY FOX | OLP | 12,519 | 27.9 | — |
| JASON DAVIS | NDP | 5,666 | 12.6 | — |
| IAN MORTON | GP | 3,381 | 7.5 | — |
| JAMES MONTGOMERY | OTH | 1,354 | 3.0 | — |
| SARAH ZENUH | OTH | 475 | 1.1 | — |
| ROB SMINK | OTH | 229 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029