Riding profile
Oxford
The question
Oxford: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Oxford, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 25% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Ernie Hardeman
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOxford | 53.9% | 24.9% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +13.7 | 33.4% −8.4 | 20.3% −7.7 | 2.2% +2.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERNIE HARDEMAN Elected | PC | 27,061 | 55.3 | — |
| BERNIA MARTIN | OLP | 11,348 | 23.2 | — |
| KHADIJAH HALIRU | NDP | 5,374 | 11.0 | — |
| COLTON KAUFMAN | GP | 2,182 | 4.5 | — |
| GRACE HARPER | OTH | 1,414 | 2.9 | — |
| PETER BEIMERS | OTH | 1,317 | 2.7 | — |
| HENRYK SZYMCZYSZYN | OTH | 274 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029