Oxford
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford | 53.8% | 22.7% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.6%+13.2 | 30.7%−8.0 | 20.8%−7.8 | 4.3%+2.6 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Ernie Hardeman · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 32.1 points, with 48.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 31.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Hardeman Elected | PC | 27,061 | 55.3 |
| Bernia Martin | OLP | 11,348 | 23.2 |
| Khadijah Haliru | NDP | 5,374 | 11.0 |
| Colton Kaufman | GP | 2,182 | 4.5 |
| Grace Harper | OTH | 1,414 | 2.9 |
| Peter Beimers | OTH | 1,317 | 2.7 |
| Henryk Szymczyszyn | OTH | 274 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London—Fanshawe NDP, safe seat
- London North Centre NDP, safe seat
- London West NDP, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre GP, safe seat
- Kitchener—Conestoga PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated