Riding profile

Oxford

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on sw

The question

Oxford: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 54.7%
  • OLP 24.0%
  • NDP 11.8%
  • OTH 6.5%
  • GP 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereOxford 54.7%24.0%11.8%6.5%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +13.3 32.3% −8.3 19.5% −7.7 4.0% +2.6

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oxford, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 24% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Ernie Hardeman

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
32.1 pts
Turnout
48.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ERNIE HARDEMAN Elected PC 27,061 55.3 —
BERNIA MARTIN OLP 11,348 23.2 —
KHADIJAH HALIRU NDP 5,374 11.0 —
COLTON KAUFMAN GP 2,182 4.5 —
GRACE HARPER OTH 1,414 2.9 —
PETER BEIMERS OTH 1,317 2.7 —
HENRYK SZYMCZYSZYN OTH 274 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029