Riding profile
London North Centre
The question
London North Centre: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
London North Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 48% vote share, against 31% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Terence Kernaghan
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLondon North Centre | 48.2% | 31.1% | 17.3% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +28.0 | 40.2% −9.1 | 33.4% −16.0 | 3.9% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TERENCE KERNAGHAN Elected | NDP | 22,587 | 46.7 | — |
| JERRY PRIBIL | PC | 15,783 | 32.6 | — |
| TARIQ KHAN | OLP | 7,557 | 15.6 | — |
| CAROL DYCK | GP | 1,605 | 3.3 | — |
| CHRIS WILE | OTH | 512 | 1.1 | — |
| PAUL MCKEEVER | OTH | 312 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029