Riding profile

London North Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

London North Centre: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 47.2%
  • PC 32.3%
  • OLP 16.5%
  • OTH 2.2%
  • GP 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereLondon North Centre 47.2%32.3%16.5%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +27.6 41.4% −9.1 32.3% −15.7 4.0% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

London North Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 47% vote share, against 32% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Terence Kernaghan

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
14.1 pts
Turnout
46.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
TERENCE KERNAGHAN Elected NDP 22,587 46.7 —
JERRY PRIBIL PC 15,783 32.6 —
TARIQ KHAN OLP 7,557 15.6 —
CAROL DYCK GP 1,605 3.3 —
CHRIS WILE OTH 512 1.1 —
PAUL MCKEEVER OTH 312 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029