Riding profile
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
The question
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLambton—Kent—Middlesex | 53.0% | 27.0% | 13.1% | 4.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +11.6 | 32.3% −5.2 | 19.5% −6.5 | 4.0% +0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 27% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Steve Pinsonneault
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHEN PINSONNEAULT Elected | PC | 25,297 | 53.5 | — |
| CATHY BURGHARDT-JESSON | OLP | 12,397 | 26.2 | — |
| KATHRYN SHAILER | NDP | 5,775 | 12.2 | — |
| ANDY FISHER | OTH | 2,093 | 4.4 | — |
| ANDRAENA TILGNER | GP | 1,677 | 3.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029