Riding profile
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
The question
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 28% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Steve Pinsonneault
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLambton—Kent—Middlesex | 52.2% | 28.0% | 13.8% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +11.9 | 33.4% −5.3 | 20.3% −6.5 | 3.9% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHEN PINSONNEAULT Elected | PC | 25,297 | 53.5 | — |
| CATHY BURGHARDT-JESSON | OLP | 12,397 | 26.2 | — |
| KATHRYN SHAILER | NDP | 5,775 | 12.2 | — |
| ANDY FISHER | OTH | 2,093 | 4.4 | — |
| ANDRAENA TILGNER | GP | 1,677 | 3.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029