Riding profile
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
The question
Chatham-Kent—Leamington: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Chatham-Kent—Leamington, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 20% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Trevor Jones
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChatham-Kent—Leamington | 50.7% | 20.1% | 18.7% | 8.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +10.4 | 33.4% −13.2 | 20.3% −1.5 | 2.2% +5.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREVOR JONES Elected | PC | 22,255 | 52.0 | — |
| BILL KIRBY | OLP | 7,856 | 18.4 | — |
| CHRISTIAN SACHS | NDP | 7,333 | 17.1 | — |
| RHONDA JUBENVILLE | OTH | 3,387 | 7.9 | — |
| MATTHEW DAVEY | GP | 1,241 | 2.9 | — |
| PHILLIP ST-LAURENT | OTH | 704 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029