Riding profile
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
The question
Chatham-Kent—Leamington: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChatham-Kent—Leamington | 51.5% | 19.2% | 17.9% | 9.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +10.1 | 32.3% −13.0 | 19.5% −1.6 | 4.0% +6.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Chatham-Kent—Leamington, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 19% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Trevor Jones
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREVOR JONES Elected | PC | 22,255 | 52.0 | — |
| BILL KIRBY | OLP | 7,856 | 18.4 | — |
| CHRISTIAN SACHS | NDP | 7,333 | 17.1 | — |
| RHONDA JUBENVILLE | OTH | 3,387 | 7.9 | — |
| MATTHEW DAVEY | GP | 1,241 | 2.9 | — |
| PHILLIP ST-LAURENT | OTH | 704 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029