Riding profile

Windsor—Tecumseh

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Windsor—Tecumseh: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Windsor—Tecumseh, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 33% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew Dowie

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 46.8%
  • NDP 32.6%
  • OLP 16.1%
  • OTH 3.1%
  • GP 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP OTH
HereWindsor—Tecumseh 46.8%32.6%16.1%3.1%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +6.5 20.3% +12.4 33.4% −17.3 2.2% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
17.1 pts
Turnout
45.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.0 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ANDREW DOWIE Elected PC 21,285 48.1
GEMMA GREY-HALL NDP 13,721 31.0
CONNOR LOGAN OLP 6,337 14.3
ROXANNE TELLIER GP 830 1.9
STEVEN GIFFORD OTH 717 1.6
SOPHIA SEVO OTH 707 1.6
KYLE FORD OTH 606 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029