Riding profile
Windsor—Tecumseh
The question
Windsor—Tecumseh: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWindsor—Tecumseh | 47.6% | 31.7% | 15.2% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +6.2 | 19.5% +12.1 | 32.3% −17.0 | 4.0% +1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Windsor—Tecumseh, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 32% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrew Dowie
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDREW DOWIE Elected | PC | 21,285 | 48.1 | — |
| GEMMA GREY-HALL | NDP | 13,721 | 31.0 | — |
| CONNOR LOGAN | OLP | 6,337 | 14.3 | — |
| ROXANNE TELLIER | GP | 830 | 1.9 | — |
| STEVEN GIFFORD | OTH | 717 | 1.6 | — |
| SOPHIA SEVO | OTH | 707 | 1.6 | — |
| KYLE FORD | OTH | 606 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029