Windsor—Tecumseh
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Windsor—Tecumseh | 46.7% | 32.8% | 13.9% | 5.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.6%+6.2 | 20.8%+12.0 | 30.7%−16.7 | 4.3%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Andrew Dowie · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 17.1 points, with 45.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 13.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Dowie Elected | PC | 21,285 | 48.2 |
| Gemma Grey-Hall | NDP | 13,721 | 31.0 |
| Connor Logan | OLP | 6,337 | 14.3 |
| Roxanne Tellier | GP | 830 | 1.9 |
| Steven Gifford | OTH | 717 | 1.6 |
| Sophia Sevo | OTH | 707 | 1.6 |
| Kyle Ford | OTH | 606 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Windsor West NDP, safe seat
- Essex PC, safe seat
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton PC, safe seat
- Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC, safe seat
- Elgin—Middlesex—London PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated