Riding profile
Windsor—Tecumseh
The question
Windsor—Tecumseh: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Windsor—Tecumseh, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 33% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrew Dowie
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWindsor—Tecumseh | 46.8% | 32.6% | 16.1% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +6.5 | 20.3% +12.4 | 33.4% −17.3 | 2.2% +0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDREW DOWIE Elected | PC | 21,285 | 48.1 | — |
| GEMMA GREY-HALL | NDP | 13,721 | 31.0 | — |
| CONNOR LOGAN | OLP | 6,337 | 14.3 | — |
| ROXANNE TELLIER | GP | 830 | 1.9 | — |
| STEVEN GIFFORD | OTH | 717 | 1.6 | — |
| SOPHIA SEVO | OTH | 707 | 1.6 | — |
| KYLE FORD | OTH | 606 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029