Riding profile
Windsor West
The question
Windsor West: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Windsor West, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 54% vote share, against 38% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lisa Gretzky
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OTH | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWindsor West | 53.8% | 38.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +33.5 | 40.2% −2.2 | 2.2% +2.4 | 3.9% −2.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LISA GRETZKY Elected | NDP | 19,392 | 52.1 | — |
| TONY FRANCIS | PC | 14,665 | 39.4 | — |
| MATTHEW GIANCOLA | OTH | 1,019 | 2.7 | — |
| NICK KOLASKY | GP | 868 | 2.3 | — |
| MARK DEWDNEY | OTH | 740 | 2.0 | — |
| JOSHUA GRIFFIN | OTH | 523 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029