Riding profile

Windsor West

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Windsor West: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 52.5%
  • PC 39.0%
  • OTH 6.5%
  • OLP 1.1%
  • GP 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OTH OLP
HereWindsor West 52.5%39.0%6.5%1.1%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +33.0 41.4% −2.4 4.0% +2.6 32.3% −31.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Windsor West, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 53% vote share, against 39% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lisa Gretzky

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
12.7 pts
Turnout
38.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
LISA GRETZKY Elected NDP 19,392 52.1 —
TONY FRANCIS PC 14,665 39.4 —
MATTHEW GIANCOLA OTH 1,019 2.7 —
NICK KOLASKY GP 868 2.3 —
MARK DEWDNEY OTH 740 2.0 —
JOSHUA GRIFFIN OTH 523 1.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029