Riding profile
Essex
The question
Essex: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEssex | 55.1% | 22.5% | 16.6% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +13.6 | 19.5% +2.9 | 32.3% −15.6 | 4.0% +1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Essex, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 22% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Anthony Leardi
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANTHONY LEARDI Elected | PC | 30,790 | 55.6 | — |
| RACHAEL MILLS | NDP | 12,047 | 21.8 | — |
| TAMARA STOMP | OLP | 8,707 | 15.7 | — |
| STEPHEN HIGGINS | GP | 1,282 | 2.3 | — |
| BRIGITTE BELTON | OTH | 940 | 1.7 | — |
| TRAVIS JACQUES | OTH | 931 | 1.7 | — |
| KEVIN LINFIELD | OTH | 469 | 0.8 | — |
| WILLIAM SZABO VERZOC | IND | 200 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029