Riding profile
Sarnia—Lambton
The question
Sarnia—Lambton: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSarnia—Lambton | 50.8% | 20.4% | 19.2% | 9.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +9.4 | 19.5% +0.9 | 32.3% −13.0 | 4.0% +5.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Sarnia—Lambton, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 20% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Robert Bailey
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOB BAILEY Elected | PC | 22,726 | 51.3 | — |
| CANDACE YOUNG | NDP | 8,716 | 19.7 | — |
| RACHEL WILLSIE | OLP | 8,134 | 18.4 | — |
| KEITH BENN | OTH | 1,876 | 4.2 | — |
| NATHAN COLQUHOUN | IND | 890 | 2.0 | — |
| PAMELA REID | GP | 840 | 1.9 | — |
| JACQUES BOUDREAU | OTH | 591 | 1.3 | — |
| MARK LAMORE | OTH | 359 | 0.8 | — |
| TOM STOUKAS | OTH | 151 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029