Riding profile
Elgin—Middlesex—London
The question
Elgin—Middlesex—London: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereElgin—Middlesex—London | 55.2% | 25.3% | 10.1% | 5.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +13.8 | 32.3% −7.0 | 19.5% −9.5 | 4.0% +1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Elgin—Middlesex—London, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 25% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Rob Flack
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROB FLACK Elected | PC | 28,720 | 55.8 | — |
| DOUGLAS MACTAVISH | OLP | 12,598 | 24.5 | — |
| AMANDA ZAVITZ | NDP | 4,738 | 9.2 | — |
| AMANDA STARK | GP | 2,933 | 5.7 | — |
| BRIAN FIGUEIREDO | OTH | 1,418 | 2.8 | — |
| COOPER LABRIE | OTH | 610 | 1.2 | — |
| STEPHEN R CAMPBELL | OTH | 469 | 0.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029