Riding profile
Huron—Bruce
The question
Huron—Bruce: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHuron—Bruce | 49.5% | 28.8% | 12.6% | 5.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +8.1 | 32.3% −3.5 | 19.5% −7.0 | 4.0% +1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Huron—Bruce, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 29% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Lisa M. Thompson
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LISA THOMPSON Elected | PC | 24,461 | 50.0 | — |
| IAN BURBIDGE | OLP | 13,703 | 28.0 | — |
| NICK MCGREGOR | NDP | 5,739 | 11.7 | — |
| MATTHEW VAN ANKUM | GP | 2,727 | 5.6 | — |
| ZACK WEILER | OTH | 2,065 | 4.2 | — |
| BRUCE EISEN | OTH | 206 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029