Riding profile
London—Fanshawe
The question
London—Fanshawe: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
London—Fanshawe, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 33% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Teresa J. Armstrong
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLondon—Fanshawe | 49.2% | 32.8% | 14.1% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +29.0 | 40.2% −7.4 | 33.4% −19.2 | 3.9% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TERESA ARMSTRONG Elected | NDP | 18,749 | 47.6 | — |
| PETE VANDERLEY | PC | 13,480 | 34.2 | — |
| KEVIN MAY | OLP | 4,884 | 12.4 | — |
| WILLIAM OSBOURNE-SORRELL | GP | 1,045 | 2.6 | — |
| CHRISTOPHER WEST | OTH | 654 | 1.7 | — |
| DAVE DURNIN | OTH | 381 | 1.0 | — |
| ALAN JOHN MCDONALD | IND | 205 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029