Riding profile

Timmins

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Timmins: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
42.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 65.5%
  • NDP 22.8%
  • OLP 9.2%
  • OTH 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP OTH
HereTimmins 65.5%22.8%9.2%2.1%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +24.1 19.5% +3.2 32.3% −23.1 4.0% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Timmins, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 23% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. George Pirie

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
48.5 pts
Turnout
41.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.7 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
GEORGE PIRIE Elected PC 9,371 68.4 —
COREY LEPAGE NDP 2,732 19.9 —
DOMINIC CASTO OLP 1,127 8.2 —
MARIE-JOSÉE YELLE GP 248 1.8 —
DAVID FARRELL OTH 220 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029