Riding profile

Timmins

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Timmins: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Timmins, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 65% vote share, against 24% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. George Pirie

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 64.8%
  • NDP 23.5%
  • OLP 9.9%
  • GP 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP GP
HereTimmins 64.8%23.5%9.9%1.4%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +24.5 20.3% +3.3 33.4% −23.5 3.9% −2.5

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
48.5 pts
Turnout
41.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
GEORGE PIRIE Elected PC 9,371 68.4
COREY LEPAGE NDP 2,732 19.9
DOMINIC CASTO OLP 1,127 8.2
MARIE-JOSÉE YELLE GP 248 1.8
DAVID FARRELL OTH 220 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029