Riding profile
Algoma—Manitoulin
The question
Algoma—Manitoulin: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Algoma—Manitoulin, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 38% vote share, against 31% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bill Rosenberg
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.0
- P(close race)
- 12%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAlgoma—Manitoulin | 37.8% | 30.9% | 16.2% | 13.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% −2.4 | 20.3% +10.6 | 33.4% −17.2 | 2.2% +10.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILL ROSENBERG Elected | PC | 11,263 | 41.3 | — |
| DAVID TIMERISKI | NDP | 7,409 | 27.2 | — |
| REG NIGANOBE | OLP | 3,948 | 14.5 | — |
| MICHAEL MANTHA | IND | 3,238 | 11.9 | — |
| SHELDON PRESSEY | OTH | 718 | 2.6 | — |
| MARIA LEGAULT | GP | 677 | 2.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029