Algoma—Manitoulin
Provincial riding · Ontario · Northern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.
Compared with the average
| PC | NDP | OTH | OLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algoma—Manitoulin | 37.5% | 31.4% | 15.2% | 14.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.6%−3.1 | 20.8%+10.6 | 4.3%+10.9 | 30.7%−16.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Bill Rosenberg · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 14.1 points, with 48.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 6.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Rosenberg Elected | PC | 11,263 | 41.3 |
| David Timeriski | NDP | 7,409 | 27.2 |
| Reg Niganobe | OLP | 3,948 | 14.5 |
| Michael Mantha | IND | 3,238 | 11.9 |
| Sheldon Pressey | OTH | 718 | 2.6 |
| Maria Legault | GP | 677 | 2.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sault Ste. Marie NDP, safe seat
- Sudbury NDP, safe seat
- Nickel Belt NDP, safe seat
- Timmins PC, safe seat
- Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated