Riding profile
Algoma—Manitoulin
The question
Algoma—Manitoulin: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.7
- P(close race)
- 2%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAlgoma—Manitoulin | 38.7% | 30.0% | 15.4% | 14.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% −2.7 | 19.5% +10.5 | 32.3% −16.9 | 4.0% +10.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Algoma—Manitoulin, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 30% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bill Rosenberg
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILL ROSENBERG Elected | PC | 11,263 | 41.3 | — |
| DAVID TIMERISKI | NDP | 7,409 | 27.2 | — |
| REG NIGANOBE | OLP | 3,948 | 14.5 | — |
| MICHAEL MANTHA | IND | 3,238 | 11.9 | — |
| SHELDON PRESSEY | OTH | 718 | 2.6 | — |
| MARIA LEGAULT | GP | 677 | 2.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029