Riding profile

Sault Ste. Marie

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Sault Ste. Marie: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
52%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 45.3%
  • PC 40.4%
  • OLP 10.9%
  • OTH 3.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereSault Ste. Marie 45.3%40.4%10.9%3.3%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +25.7 41.4% −1.1 32.3% −21.4 4.0% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sault Ste. Marie, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 45% vote share, against 40% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Scott

Sits with IND

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
0.4 pts
Turnout
49.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
CHRIS SCOTT Elected PC 13,071 43.1 —
LISA VEZEAU-ALLEN NDP 12,957 42.7 —
GURWINDER DUSANJH OLP 3,036 10.0 —
ARNOLD HEINO OTH 564 1.9 —
JAYCOB JACQUES GP 421 1.4 —
PAUL FROLICH OTH 301 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029