Riding profile
Sault Ste. Marie
The question
Sault Ste. Marie: will IND lose this seat to NDP?
Editorial read
Sault Ste. Marie, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 46% vote share, against 40% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Scott
Sits with IND
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.8
- P(close race)
- 14%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSault Ste. Marie | 46.4% | 39.6% | 11.7% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +26.1 | 40.2% −0.7 | 33.4% −21.7 | 2.2% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHRIS SCOTT Elected | PC | 13,071 | 43.1 | — |
| LISA VEZEAU-ALLEN | NDP | 12,957 | 42.7 | — |
| GURWINDER DUSANJH | OLP | 3,036 | 10.0 | — |
| ARNOLD HEINO | OTH | 564 | 1.9 | — |
| JAYCOB JACQUES | GP | 421 | 1.4 | — |
| PAUL FROLICH | OTH | 301 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029