Riding profile
Parry Sound—Muskoka
The question
Parry Sound—Muskoka: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PC
Toss-up
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 54%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | GP | OLP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereParry Sound—Muskoka | 44.6% | 39.8% | 9.0% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +3.1 | 2.8% +37.0 | 32.3% −23.3 | 19.5% −16.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Parry Sound—Muskoka, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 40% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Graydon Smith
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAYDON SMITH Elected | PC | 21,731 | 46.8 | — |
| MATT RICHTER | GP | 19,360 | 41.7 | — |
| DAVID INNES | OLP | 2,828 | 6.1 | — |
| JIM RONHOLM | NDP | 1,329 | 2.9 | — |
| BRANDON NICKSY | OTH | 785 | 1.7 | — |
| HELEN KROEKER | OTH | 403 | 0.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029