Riding profile

Parry Sound—Muskoka

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on provincewide

The question

Parry Sound—Muskoka: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Parry Sound—Muskoka, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 42% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Graydon Smith

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
56%
Mean margin (pts)
1.9
P(close race)
96%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 42.2%
  • GP 41.8%
  • OLP 10.3%
  • NDP 4.7%
  • OTH 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC GP OLP NDP
HereParry Sound—Muskoka 42.2%41.8%10.3%4.7%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +1.9 3.9% +37.8 33.4% −23.1 20.3% −15.6

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
5.1 pts
Turnout
53.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
GRAYDON SMITH Elected PC 21,731 46.8 —
MATT RICHTER GP 19,360 41.7 —
DAVID INNES OLP 2,828 6.1 —
JIM RONHOLM NDP 1,329 2.9 —
BRANDON NICKSY OTH 785 1.7 —
HELEN KROEKER OTH 403 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029