Riding profile

Brantford—Brant

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on sw

The question

Brantford—Brant: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 46.8%
  • NDP 24.2%
  • OLP 21.1%
  • OTH 4.4%
  • GP 3.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP OTH
HereBrantford—Brant 46.8%24.2%21.1%4.4%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +5.3 19.5% +4.6 32.3% −11.2 4.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brantford—Brant, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 24% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Will Bouma

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
23.8 pts
Turnout
43.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
WILL BOUMA Elected PC 24,169 47.2
HARVEY BISCHOF NDP 12,005 23.5
RON FOX OLP 10,364 20.3
KARLEIGH CSORDAS GP 2,597 5.1
JOSHUA CARRON OTH 1,138 2.2
ROB FERGUSON OTH 500 1.0
MIKE CLANCY OTH 316 0.6
JAMES CARRUTHERS OTH 83 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029